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The Political Economy
of Asian Transitions from Communism -
Chapter 1. Introduction
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Asian communist countries (China, North Korea, Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia) have demonstrated a different pattern of transition as compared to that of Russia and Eastern Europe – “institutional” phased or gradualist approach versus “neoclassical” Big Bang or radical approach. The debate between shock-therapists and gradualists has dominated professional discussions on transitions from communism for the whole decade of the 1990s. This chapter will put the Asian transition in a broader comparative context to compare and contrast the general characteristics of the two predominant models of transition from communism, revisit the debate between shock-therapists and gradualists, challenge the predominant structuralist explanations of why Asian states have adopted a gradualist approach to their transition as compared to that of Russia and Eastern Europe, and bring about some general theoretical questions to be addressed in this study. This chapter will also construct an analytical model in which key indicators will be established to facilitate the comparative study of Asian transitions as compared to post-communist states in Russia and Eastern Europe.
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Chapter 2. Pre-reform Model
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This chapter will define and provide theoretical reference points of departure from state socialism or command economy across these countries, in order to define the beginning and the end of transition from communism and conduct a sensible assessment of political economic change across these countries. Empirical dimensions of the pre-reform political economy of each country will be discussed.
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Chapter 3. Explaining Reform
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This chapter will attempt to identify causal variables that have contributed to reform efforts across these Asian countries –– explaining why they have reformed. This chapter will discuss different arguments about “causality” and single out one most prominent causal variable –– the interplay between state and market, which leads to the next chapter on the sequencing of reform across these countries.
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Chapter 4. Sequencing of Reform
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This chapter will focus on the strategic choice resulted from the interplay between state and market and explore the significance of the sequencing of political and economic transitions and the interplay between politics and economy in determining variations in transition outcome. Through comparison, this chapter also attempts to draw some real lessons about how the sequencing of political and economic transitions influences the prospects for democracy and economic restructuring, though the choice of the sequencing model varies across these Asian countries.
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Chapter 5. Assessing Reform
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This chapter will assess the nature of changes in these countries –– what direction and how far with regard to some key indicators or important empirical elements of a market economy. Key empirical indicators will be established as a theoretical framework for the assessment of reform achievements in these Asian countries as compared to those in Eastern European countries. Road maps will be provided for readers to compare and understand the transition outcomes across the two regions.
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Chapter 6. Conclusion: Who will be the Winner?
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The final chapter attempts to address the century-old question: Who will be the winner in the grand failure of communism: market capitalism or market socialism? In other words, Have these Asian countries offered an alternative to the socialist planned economy and the capitalist market economy during the demise of communism at the “End of History?” Can market socialism, a market-based form of socialism within the political context of one-party communist rule, find a way out of the difficulties or crises of communism and compete successfully with market capitalism? A rethinking of socialism will not only help to address these questions but also provide a better understanding of the practical and theoretical implications of market socialism for the future of these East and Southeast Asian countries.