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THE WHITE HOUSE
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
SECRET
To: The President
From: The National Security Advisor
Subject: Responding to the Serbian Reprisal in Kosovo
August 4, 1998
Issue for Decision
Last Thursday, Serbian police massacred eighty ethnic Albanians, including women and children, in the Serbian region of Kosovo. The attack was in retaliation to the assassination of three Serbian magistrates July 12. Vivid CNN reports have fueled American public and congressional pressure for a robust reaction against Serbia. We need to formulate our position prior to Ambassador Robert Gelbard's meeting with Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic in Belgrade next week.
Background
Historic tensions between ethnic Albanians and Serbs in Kosovo have intensified since Milosevic rescinded Kosovo's autonomy in 1989. The Albanians, who constitute 90% of the Kosovo's population, have become increasingly violent in their quest for independence. Albanian paramilitary attacks against Serbian officials have trebled during the last six months--leading to this most recent Serbian response to what they perceive as terrorist acts.
The problem has regional ramifications. Kosovo borders on Albania–and on Macedonia and Montenegro both of whom have significant Albanian populations. A civil war in Kosovo could embroil all three and destabilize their already weak governments. Greece and Bulgaria, in these circumstances, would be tempted to pursue outstanding claims against Macedonia. --stimulating a military response from Turkey in defense of Muslim brethren under attack by Christian orthodoxy. At risk is another Balkan war.
For Serbs, Kosovo is the soul of their national spirit. While they were prepared to see Slovenia, Croatia and even Bosnia go their separate ways, this will not be the case with Kosovo. Serbs are prepared to wage holy war to hold on to the region--and to reject any leader who entertains secession. Our European allies and Russia seem to understand this and are exerting pressure on both sides to conduct negotiations on Kosovo autonomy within the broader Serbian state.
US Interests
Certainly it is in the interest of the United States to deter another Balkan war, as it is to discourage brutal Serbian treatment of ethnic Albanian citizens. These interests are not, however, vital to American security. We should accordingly rule out unilateral commitments of major American political and economic resources or American lives. Americans citizens should not be asked to bear such costs. The European states, specifically Russia, Germany, France, Great Britain and Italy, for reasons of history and proximity, have a greater stake than we in the peaceful resolution of the Kosovo problem. We should encourage their involvement. We have 654 US service personnel assigned to UN and OSCE currently stationed in Macedonia.
Options
Kosovo cannot be contained by bluster or military action, much less unilateral American strikes. What we need is Milosevic's agreement to restore autonomy and to protect the rights of Serbs and Albanians alike--and ethnic Albanian acceptance of a solution short of full independence. The appropriate tool is political influence exerted in conjunction with interested European powers. This should be augmented by economic sanctions and incentives. Non-partisan observers from the UN, the OSCE should be deployed to stabilize and add transparency to the situation in Kosovo while the political process moves forward.
Recommendation
That instructions consonant with the above be prepared for Ambassador Gelbard's use with Milosevic; that the principal points of the instructions be shared with European allies, including Russia, and with appropriate international organizations--soliciting their support and comment; that detailed briefings be arranged for Jesse Helms and other senior Congressional leaders; and that the public be informed of the broad outlines and rational behind this policy though press briefings and backgrounders and public presentations.
Approve ________
Disapprove______
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